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Pawlenty to Iowa

To headline a November equivalent to the Ronald Reagan dinner, according to the National Journal

Des Moines Register‘s Beaumont reports, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is heading to IA on 11/7 to headline the state GOP’s fall fundraiser — his first visit of the cycle to the leadoff caucus state.

IA GOP exec. dir. Jeff Boeynik told the Register: “We are proud to announce that Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has agreed to headline our Republican fall event. … Gov. Pawlenty is the kind of leader we’re looking for.”

The fall fundraiser takes the place of what has traditionally been called the Ronald Reagan dinner, and is “aimed at bringing out rank-and-file” GOPers. The ticket price for what’s being called “Leadership for Iowa” is $25 “instead of the higher prices the Reagan dinner has typically fetched.”

It’s hard to pin down exact dates, but here’s what my research has turned up about the 2008 cycle Iowa visits.  On September 26 and 27, 2005 Mike Huckabee made his first visit to Iowa and claimed to be considering a Presidential run.  That’s equivalent to Sept of 2009, in this cycle.  So T-Paw’s a little behind Huckabee in this metric.  Mitt Romney had made 9 visits to Iowa by Sept of 2006 (though that included campaign events for Bush in 2004), so Pawlenty’s probably behind Romney circa 2008.  But, most of the other candidates waited til 2006 to grace Iowa’s borders.  I’m glad to see him make this move and, to me, it suggests he’s serious about competing in the first caucus.

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  1. MWS
    October 7, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    I think Iowa will be far more significant in ’12 than it was in ’08. In ’08, Romney made a big push because the top tier (Guiliani and McCain) were not “Iowa friendly” and there was a big opening. Huck pushed because…. well…. he had to show he was relevent. Looking at the current potential field for 2012, however, it is clear that the upside and the downside is greater for more candidates. Consider:

    1. Pawlenty- this is obvious. He needs to crack the top tier, AND he is a neighbor, so the CW is if he can’t do well here, he can’t do well anywhere. On the upside, he could knock of one of two of the Big 3 with a good showing, and perhaps claim much of their supporters in subsequent primaries. I think he could be “next in line” for many voters among ANY of the Big 3. So his strategy should probably be to finish at least a solid 2nd, and hope that 2 of the Big 3 are mortally wounded.

    2. Huck- he won here last time, so expectations are going to be high. The upside is if he can mortally wound Palin, he is the undisputed champion of the SoCons and maybe even claims the Tea Partyers. The downside is a distant 2nd or worse probably make a lot of people look elsewhere, and whoever is #1 will have the Big Mo.

    3. Palin (is she runs) must do well in Iowa because it is a perfect example of “real” America where she is supposed to be so popular. She HAS to demonstrate that she can turn that popularity into votes. As a National Celebrity Politician she’s almost forced to compete everywhere, but expectations are going to be especially high for her in the Heartland.

    4. Romney probably wishes he could skip Iowa in 2012. If he hadn’t run an Iowa First campaign in ’08, I’d advise him to do that and secure NH and work on the tie breaker in SC. But given the resources he poured in in ’08, and his second place finish, he’s kind of trapped. If he finished 2nd in ’08, and finishes 4th in ’12, he’s “washed up” and taking a step backwards relative to a campaign that lost.

  2. mac
    October 8, 2009 at 1:07 am

    Excellent analysis mws.

  3. Voter
    October 8, 2009 at 3:42 am

    If everybody runs, the recent VVS straw poll will be reflective of the Iowa Caucus: Mike Huckabee will cruise to an easy win and everyone else will be bunched up at least 15 points back. Those evangelical social conservatives who came out for Mike in 2008 did so with passion, loyalty and love; they will be back — foolish anyone who thinks otherwise.

    Now, does Iowa prove anything? Well, it will finally shut down inexperienced pundits who continually claim that Palin is in competition for Huck’s social conservatives. (No one is — for the record — he will come back stronger than ever, with all the religious leaders behind him this time). He will take SC — Mitt will grab MI and NH. After that, it is a close battle between the two — each will grab what they had the last time (unless Pawlenty hangs in and takes MN and Palin grabs AK and maybe NE, but I doubt NE). The two will battle it out, until one of them grabs soemthing they werent’ expected to win — and the race will be over. If Huck wins the nomination, the ticket will be Huck/Romney. If Romney wins, he would want Huck, but Mike would rather return to big bucks media then serve as a VP

  4. mac
    October 8, 2009 at 1:11 pm

    This belongs in the sin post, but that’s so many days ago thought I’d put it here. I got it from the Truth for Life daily devotions.

    Lessons from Leprosy
    And if the leprous disease has covered all his body, he shall pronounce him clean of the disease.
    — Leviticus 13:13
    This regulation appears to be very strange, but there was wisdom in it, for the throwing out of the disease proved that the constitution was sound. This morning it may be well for us to see the typical teaching of this singular principle. We, too, are lepers and may read the law of the leper as applicable to ourselves. When a man sees himself to be completely lost and ruined, covered all over with the defilement of sin, and with no part free from pollution, when he disclaims all righteousness of his own and pleads guilty before the Lord, then is he clean through the blood of Jesus and the grace of God.
    Hidden, unfelt, unconfessed iniquity is the true leprosy, but when sin is seen and felt it has received its death blow, and the Lord looks with eyes of mercy upon the soul afflicted with it. Nothing is more deadly than self-righteousness or more hopeful than contrition. We must confess that we are nothing else but sin, for no confession short of this will be the whole truth. And if the Holy Spirit is at work within us, convincing us of sin, there will be no difficulty in making such an acknowledgment-it will spring spontaneously from our lips.
    What comfort this text provides to those under a deep sense of sin! Sin mourned and confessed, however deep and foul, will never shut a man out from the Lord Jesus. “Whoever comes to me I will never cast out.”1 Though dishonest as the thief, though immoral as the woman who was a sinner, though fierce as Saul of Tarsus, though cruel as Manasseh, though rebellious as the prodigal, the great heart of love will look upon the man who feels himself to have no health in him and will pronounce him clean when he trusts in Jesus crucified. Come to Him, then, poor heavy-laden sinner.
    Come needy, come guilty, come loathsome
    and bare;
    You can’t come too filthy-come just as you are.
    1John 6:37

  5. mac
    October 8, 2009 at 1:56 pm

    Back on topic, TPaw gets favorable mention in this very favorable Huck article that they posted over at HuckPAC:

    http://www.cdobs.com/archive/syndicated/thought-while-shaving-it-just-may-be-huckabees-time,73734

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